Short-Term Forecasting of Student Dropout Trends Using Minimal-Data Predictive Modeling
International Journal of Advanced Multidisciplinary Research and Studies; 5(3); pp:1237-1244
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International Journal of Advanced Multidisciplinary Research and Studies
2025
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oai:elib.vku.udn.vn:123456789-58782025-11-17T22:55:13Z Short-Term Forecasting of Student Dropout Trends Using Minimal-Data Predictive Modeling Nguyen, Ngoc Huyen Tran Gray Level Accuracy MAPE GM (1,1) International Journal of Advanced Multidisciplinary Research and Studies; 5(3); pp:1237-1244 The important and sustainable factor for the reputation and development of universities is the student retention rate. Domestic educational institutions are facing an increasing dropout rate over time, which not only affects the psychology and learning outcomes of students but also leads to unpredictable consequences for the economy and reputation of educational institutions. This study will forecast the student dropout rate using widely accepted mathematical technology. The study has transformed the initial student dropout data through a univariate forecasting method for a small data set. Through the steps in the GM (1,1) model to forecast the number of students likely to drop out for the next period. The accuracy of the model is also evaluated through the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), the correlation coefficient (R), Gray Level Accuracy, and the posterior error ratio. The forecast results show that the trend of student dropouts will gradually increase from 2025 to 2030, with relatively good model accuracy (MAPE ≈ 2.8%, R ≈ 0.92, Gray Level Accuracy ≈ 0.97, and Posterior Error Ratio ≈ 0.4). From these results, educational institutions have a tool to forecast the dropout rate, thereby developing appropriate and proactive policies. From there, the study also highlights the role of businesses in creating conditions for students to practice and orient their careers. However, the study also has certain limitations because it has not combined many other influencing factors to make more accurate predictions. 2025-11-17T22:55:01Z 2025-11-17T22:55:01Z 2025-06 Working Paper 2583-049X https://elib.vku.udn.vn/handle/123456789/5878 en application/pdf International Journal of Advanced Multidisciplinary Research and Studies |
| institution |
Trường Đại học Công nghệ Thông tin và Truyền thông Việt Hàn - Đại học Đà Nẵng |
| collection |
DSpace |
| language |
English |
| topic |
Gray Level Accuracy MAPE GM (1,1) |
| spellingShingle |
Gray Level Accuracy MAPE GM (1,1) Nguyen, Ngoc Huyen Tran Short-Term Forecasting of Student Dropout Trends Using Minimal-Data Predictive Modeling |
| description |
International Journal of Advanced Multidisciplinary Research and Studies; 5(3); pp:1237-1244 |
| format |
Working Paper |
| author |
Nguyen, Ngoc Huyen Tran |
| author_facet |
Nguyen, Ngoc Huyen Tran |
| author_sort |
Nguyen, Ngoc Huyen Tran |
| title |
Short-Term Forecasting of Student Dropout Trends Using Minimal-Data Predictive Modeling |
| title_short |
Short-Term Forecasting of Student Dropout Trends Using Minimal-Data Predictive Modeling |
| title_full |
Short-Term Forecasting of Student Dropout Trends Using Minimal-Data Predictive Modeling |
| title_fullStr |
Short-Term Forecasting of Student Dropout Trends Using Minimal-Data Predictive Modeling |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Short-Term Forecasting of Student Dropout Trends Using Minimal-Data Predictive Modeling |
| title_sort |
short-term forecasting of student dropout trends using minimal-data predictive modeling |
| publisher |
International Journal of Advanced Multidisciplinary Research and Studies |
| publishDate |
2025 |
| url |
https://elib.vku.udn.vn/handle/123456789/5878 |
| _version_ |
1849386806465789952 |