Do budget deficits affect real interest rates? A test of Ricardian equivalence theorem

This study re-examines the Ricardian Equivalence theorem (RET) by using advanced time series econometric models to investigate updated data of the U.S. budget deficits and real interest rates. We employ a multi-model approach to thoroughly investigate the properties of two time series, namely the...

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Tác giả chính: Nguyễn, Văn Tuấn
Định dạng: Journal article
Ngôn ngữ:English
Được phát hành: Danubius University Press 2022
Những chủ đề:
VAR
Truy cập trực tuyến:http://scholar.dlu.edu.vn/handle/123456789/835
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spelling oai:scholar.dlu.edu.vn:123456789-8352022-08-19T12:10:49Z Do budget deficits affect real interest rates? A test of Ricardian equivalence theorem Nguyễn, Văn Tuấn ARMA VAR Ricardian Equivalence Theorem Budget Deficits Interest Rates This study re-examines the Ricardian Equivalence theorem (RET) by using advanced time series econometric models to investigate updated data of the U.S. budget deficits and real interest rates. We employ a multi-model approach to thoroughly investigate the properties of two time series, namely the U.S. federal budget deficits (BDEF) and real interest rates (INTRATE) for the study period from 1798 to 2009. It is found that BDEF and INTRATE are I(0) processes. The AR (2) is the most appropriate model for the BDEF series, while the ARMA (3,2) is the proper model for the INTRATE series. The estimated VAR (2) model, comprising the two stationary series BDEF and INTRATE, implies that the BDEF series has no effect on the INTRATE series. The Granger-causality test also shows that there is no direction of causality from the BDEF series to the INTRATE series. Our findings are consistent with what the Ricardian Equivalence theorem predicts and, therefore, support the proposition that the budget deficits are neutral. This study significantly contributes to the extant literature of the relationship between the budget deficits and the real interest rates by applying the multi-model approach. Furthermore, our long time series dataset enables us to make reliable inferences. 9 5 86-102 2022-08-19T12:10:46Z 2022-08-19T12:10:46Z 2013 Journal article Bài báo đăng trên tạp chí quốc tế (có ISSN), bao gồm book chapter 2065-0175 http://scholar.dlu.edu.vn/handle/123456789/835 en Acta Universitatis Danubius Œconomica 2065-0175 Danubius University Press Romania
institution Thư viện Trường Đại học Đà Lạt
collection Thư viện số
language English
topic ARMA
VAR
Ricardian Equivalence Theorem
Budget Deficits
Interest Rates
spellingShingle ARMA
VAR
Ricardian Equivalence Theorem
Budget Deficits
Interest Rates
Nguyễn, Văn Tuấn
Do budget deficits affect real interest rates? A test of Ricardian equivalence theorem
description This study re-examines the Ricardian Equivalence theorem (RET) by using advanced time series econometric models to investigate updated data of the U.S. budget deficits and real interest rates. We employ a multi-model approach to thoroughly investigate the properties of two time series, namely the U.S. federal budget deficits (BDEF) and real interest rates (INTRATE) for the study period from 1798 to 2009. It is found that BDEF and INTRATE are I(0) processes. The AR (2) is the most appropriate model for the BDEF series, while the ARMA (3,2) is the proper model for the INTRATE series. The estimated VAR (2) model, comprising the two stationary series BDEF and INTRATE, implies that the BDEF series has no effect on the INTRATE series. The Granger-causality test also shows that there is no direction of causality from the BDEF series to the INTRATE series. Our findings are consistent with what the Ricardian Equivalence theorem predicts and, therefore, support the proposition that the budget deficits are neutral. This study significantly contributes to the extant literature of the relationship between the budget deficits and the real interest rates by applying the multi-model approach. Furthermore, our long time series dataset enables us to make reliable inferences.
format Journal article
author Nguyễn, Văn Tuấn
author_facet Nguyễn, Văn Tuấn
author_sort Nguyễn, Văn Tuấn
title Do budget deficits affect real interest rates? A test of Ricardian equivalence theorem
title_short Do budget deficits affect real interest rates? A test of Ricardian equivalence theorem
title_full Do budget deficits affect real interest rates? A test of Ricardian equivalence theorem
title_fullStr Do budget deficits affect real interest rates? A test of Ricardian equivalence theorem
title_full_unstemmed Do budget deficits affect real interest rates? A test of Ricardian equivalence theorem
title_sort do budget deficits affect real interest rates? a test of ricardian equivalence theorem
publisher Danubius University Press
publishDate 2022
url http://scholar.dlu.edu.vn/handle/123456789/835
_version_ 1768305864895102976