The econometrics of macroeconomic modelling
This book is about building models by testing hypotheses of macroeconomic theories–rather than by imposing theories untested. This is quite a crucial distinction in macroeconometric model building. For an empirical model to be useful, be it as a basis for economic policy decisions or for forecast...
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| Auteurs principaux: | , , |
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| Format: | Livre |
| Langue: | English |
| Publié: |
Oxford University Press
2012
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| Accès en ligne: | https://scholar.dlu.edu.vn/thuvienso/handle/DLU123456789/30536 |
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| Thư viện lưu trữ: | Thư viện Trường Đại học Đà Lạt |
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| Résumé: | This book is about building models by testing hypotheses of macroeconomic
theories–rather than by imposing theories untested. This is quite a crucial
distinction in macroeconometric model building. For an empirical model to be
useful, be it as a basis for economic policy decisions or for forecasting, it needs
to describe the relevant aspects of reality. Simplification is the main virtue
of theoretical model building. In empirical modelling it might easily become
a vice. A theoretical model is often reduced to just those equations that are
required to make it work for the problem at hand. A good empirical model
should also be able to explain problems that might occur. Einstein’s advice that
‘everything should be as simple as possible . . . but no simpler’ is as relevant as
ever. If a model does not describe the data, it may just be too simple to be
used as a tool for macroeconomic decision making. |
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