Toward Climate-Resilient Development in Nigeria

If not addressed in time, climate change is expected to exacerbate Nigeria?s current vulnerability to weather swings and limit its ability to achieve and sustain the objectives of Vision 20:2020 [as defined in http://www.npc.gov.ng /home/doc.aspx?mCatID=68253]. The likely impacts include: ? A...

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Những tác giả chính:	Cervigni, Raffaello, Valentini, Riccardo, Santini, Monia
Định dạng:	Sách
Ngôn ngữ:	English
Được phát hành:	World Bank 2015
Những chủ đề:	Nigeria Crop modeling Climate change adaptation Agriculture and land use
Truy cập trực tuyến:	https://scholar.dlu.edu.vn/thuvienso/handle/DLU123456789/56413
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spelling	oai:scholar.dlu.edu.vn:DLU123456789-564132023-11-11T05:33:59Z Toward Climate-Resilient Development in Nigeria Cervigni, Raffaello Valentini, Riccardo Santini, Monia Nigeria Crop modeling Climate change adaptation Agriculture and land use If not addressed in time, climate change is expected to exacerbate Nigeria?s current vulnerability to weather swings and limit its ability to achieve and sustain the objectives of Vision 20:2020 [as defined in http://www.npc.gov.ng /home/doc.aspx?mCatID=68253]. The likely impacts include: ? A long-term reduction in crop yields of 20?30 percent ? Declining productivity of livestock, with adverse consequences on livelihoods ? Increase in food imports (up to 40 percent for rice long term) ? Worsening prospects for food security, particularly in the north and the southwest ? A long-term decline in GDP of up to 4.5 percent The impacts may be worse if the economy diversifies away from agriculture more slowly than Vision 20:2020 anticipates, or if there is too little irrigation to counter the effects of rising temperatures on rain-fed yields. Equally important, investment decisions made on the basis of historical climate may be wrong: projects ignoring climate change might be either under- or over-designed, with losses (in terms of excess capital costs or foregone revenues) of 20?40 percent of initial capital in the case of irrigation or hydropower. Fortunately, there is a range of technological and management options that make sense, both to better handle current climate variability and to build resilience against a harsher climate: ? By 2020 sustainable land management practices applied to 1 million hectares can offset most of the expected shorter-term yield decline; gradual extension of these practices to 50 percent of cropland, possibly combined with extra irrigation, can also counter-balance longer-term climate change impacts. ? Climate-smart planning and design of irrigation and hydropower can more than halve the risks and related costs of making the wrong investment decision. The Federal Government could consider 10 short-term priority responses to build resilience to both current climate variability and future change through actions to improve climate governance across sectors, research and extension in agriculture, hydro-meteorological systems; integration of climate factors into the design of irrigation and hydropower projects, and mainstreaming climate concerns into priority programs, such as the Agriculture Transformation Agenda. 2015-06-15T06:37:52Z 2015-06-15T06:37:52Z 2013 Book 9780821399231 9780821399248 https://scholar.dlu.edu.vn/thuvienso/handle/DLU123456789/56413 en application/pdf World Bank
institution	Thư viện Trường Đại học Đà Lạt
collection	Thư viện số
language	English
topic	Nigeria Crop modeling Climate change adaptation Agriculture and land use
spellingShingle	Nigeria Crop modeling Climate change adaptation Agriculture and land use Cervigni, Raffaello Valentini, Riccardo Santini, Monia Toward Climate-Resilient Development in Nigeria
description	If not addressed in time, climate change is expected to exacerbate Nigeria?s current vulnerability to weather swings and limit its ability to achieve and sustain the objectives of Vision 20:2020 [as defined in http://www.npc.gov.ng /home/doc.aspx?mCatID=68253]. The likely impacts include: ? A long-term reduction in crop yields of 20?30 percent ? Declining productivity of livestock, with adverse consequences on livelihoods ? Increase in food imports (up to 40 percent for rice long term) ? Worsening prospects for food security, particularly in the north and the southwest ? A long-term decline in GDP of up to 4.5 percent The impacts may be worse if the economy diversifies away from agriculture more slowly than Vision 20:2020 anticipates, or if there is too little irrigation to counter the effects of rising temperatures on rain-fed yields. Equally important, investment decisions made on the basis of historical climate may be wrong: projects ignoring climate change might be either under- or over-designed, with losses (in terms of excess capital costs or foregone revenues) of 20?40 percent of initial capital in the case of irrigation or hydropower. Fortunately, there is a range of technological and management options that make sense, both to better handle current climate variability and to build resilience against a harsher climate: ? By 2020 sustainable land management practices applied to 1 million hectares can offset most of the expected shorter-term yield decline; gradual extension of these practices to 50 percent of cropland, possibly combined with extra irrigation, can also counter-balance longer-term climate change impacts. ? Climate-smart planning and design of irrigation and hydropower can more than halve the risks and related costs of making the wrong investment decision. The Federal Government could consider 10 short-term priority responses to build resilience to both current climate variability and future change through actions to improve climate governance across sectors, research and extension in agriculture, hydro-meteorological systems; integration of climate factors into the design of irrigation and hydropower projects, and mainstreaming climate concerns into priority programs, such as the Agriculture Transformation Agenda.
format	Book
author	Cervigni, Raffaello Valentini, Riccardo Santini, Monia
author_facet	Cervigni, Raffaello Valentini, Riccardo Santini, Monia
author_sort	Cervigni, Raffaello
title	Toward Climate-Resilient Development in Nigeria
title_short	Toward Climate-Resilient Development in Nigeria
title_full	Toward Climate-Resilient Development in Nigeria
title_fullStr	Toward Climate-Resilient Development in Nigeria
title_full_unstemmed	Toward Climate-Resilient Development in Nigeria
title_sort	toward climate-resilient development in nigeria
publisher	World Bank
publishDate	2015
url	https://scholar.dlu.edu.vn/thuvienso/handle/DLU123456789/56413
_version_	1819808733742497792

Toward Climate-Resilient Development in Nigeria

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