Impacts of the US-China Trade Tension and RCEP on Vietnam-China Trade Balance
The paper aims to analyze the trade balance between Vietnam and China andassess the impact of its key determinants, with a focus on the US China trade war,using the autoregressive distributed lag model for quarterly data from Q1 2009 to Q42022. The statistical analysis shows that although Vietnam�...
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| Những tác giả chính: | , , |
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| Định dạng: | Journal article |
| Ngôn ngữ: | English |
| Được phát hành: |
2024
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| Những chủ đề: | |
| Truy cập trực tuyến: | https://scholar.dlu.edu.vn/handle/123456789/3475 https://vietnamjournal.ru/2618-9453/article/view/626487/pdf_1 |
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| Thư viện lưu trữ: | Thư viện Trường Đại học Đà Lạt |
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| Tóm tắt: | The paper aims to analyze the trade balance between Vietnam and China andassess the impact of its key determinants, with a focus on the US China trade war,using the autoregressive distributed lag model for quarterly data from Q1 2009 to Q42022. The statistical analysis shows that although Vietnam's trade balance with Chinashows increasing deficits, the US China trade war has a positive impact on Vietnam asits export import ratio with China increases in both the long and short run. We alsofind that the impact of participation in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Part nership (RCEP) is positive but not statistically significant. We also find evidence thatseveral factors have a positive and significant impact on the trade balance, includingVietnam's growth rate, Vietnam's industrial production index, and China's population.On the other hand, some factors, such as the exchange rate between Chinese yuan andVietnamese dong and the population of Vietnam, are found to have a significant nega tive impact. These findings can provide evidence to help Vietnamese businesses andpolicymakers formulate trade policies with China, especially in the current complexgeopolitical context |
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