Impacts of the US-China Trade Tension and RCEP on Vietnam-China Trade Balance

The paper aims to analyze the trade balance between Vietnam and China andassess the impact of its key determinants, with a focus on the US China trade war,using the autoregressive distributed lag model for quarterly data from Q1 2009 to Q42022. The statistical analysis shows that although Vietnam�...

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Những tác giả chính: Tu, Thuy Anh, Chu, Thi Mai Phuong, Trương, Thị Lan Hương
Định dạng: Journal article
Ngôn ngữ:English
Được phát hành: 2024
Những chủ đề:
Truy cập trực tuyến:https://scholar.dlu.edu.vn/handle/123456789/3475
https://vietnamjournal.ru/2618-9453/article/view/626487/pdf_1
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spelling oai:scholar.dlu.edu.vn:123456789-34752024-09-23T05:07:40Z Impacts of the US-China Trade Tension and RCEP on Vietnam-China Trade Balance Tu, Thuy Anh Chu, Thi Mai Phuong Trương, Thị Lan Hương trade balance the US China trade war RCEP Vietnam China geopolitics The paper aims to analyze the trade balance between Vietnam and China andassess the impact of its key determinants, with a focus on the US China trade war,using the autoregressive distributed lag model for quarterly data from Q1 2009 to Q42022. The statistical analysis shows that although Vietnam's trade balance with Chinashows increasing deficits, the US China trade war has a positive impact on Vietnam asits export import ratio with China increases in both the long and short run. We alsofind that the impact of participation in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Part nership (RCEP) is positive but not statistically significant. We also find evidence thatseveral factors have a positive and significant impact on the trade balance, includingVietnam's growth rate, Vietnam's industrial production index, and China's population.On the other hand, some factors, such as the exchange rate between Chinese yuan andVietnamese dong and the population of Vietnam, are found to have a significant nega tive impact. These findings can provide evidence to help Vietnamese businesses andpolicymakers formulate trade policies with China, especially in the current complexgeopolitical context 8 1 38-51 Khoa Du lịch 3 Trương Thị Lan Hương x 2024-05-16T01:44:41Z 2024-05-16T01:44:41Z 2024 Journal article Bài báo đăng trên tạp chí quốc tế (có ISSN), bao gồm book chapter https://scholar.dlu.edu.vn/handle/123456789/3475 10.54631/VS.2024.81 626487 https://vietnamjournal.ru/2618-9453/article/view/626487/pdf_1 en RUSSIAN JOURNAL OF VIETNAMESE STUDIES
institution Thư viện Trường Đại học Đà Lạt
collection Thư viện số
language English
topic trade balance
the US China trade war
RCEP
Vietnam
China
geopolitics
spellingShingle trade balance
the US China trade war
RCEP
Vietnam
China
geopolitics
Tu, Thuy Anh
Chu, Thi Mai Phuong
Trương, Thị Lan Hương
Impacts of the US-China Trade Tension and RCEP on Vietnam-China Trade Balance
description The paper aims to analyze the trade balance between Vietnam and China andassess the impact of its key determinants, with a focus on the US China trade war,using the autoregressive distributed lag model for quarterly data from Q1 2009 to Q42022. The statistical analysis shows that although Vietnam's trade balance with Chinashows increasing deficits, the US China trade war has a positive impact on Vietnam asits export import ratio with China increases in both the long and short run. We alsofind that the impact of participation in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Part nership (RCEP) is positive but not statistically significant. We also find evidence thatseveral factors have a positive and significant impact on the trade balance, includingVietnam's growth rate, Vietnam's industrial production index, and China's population.On the other hand, some factors, such as the exchange rate between Chinese yuan andVietnamese dong and the population of Vietnam, are found to have a significant nega tive impact. These findings can provide evidence to help Vietnamese businesses andpolicymakers formulate trade policies with China, especially in the current complexgeopolitical context
format Journal article
author Tu, Thuy Anh
Chu, Thi Mai Phuong
Trương, Thị Lan Hương
author_facet Tu, Thuy Anh
Chu, Thi Mai Phuong
Trương, Thị Lan Hương
author_sort Tu, Thuy Anh
title Impacts of the US-China Trade Tension and RCEP on Vietnam-China Trade Balance
title_short Impacts of the US-China Trade Tension and RCEP on Vietnam-China Trade Balance
title_full Impacts of the US-China Trade Tension and RCEP on Vietnam-China Trade Balance
title_fullStr Impacts of the US-China Trade Tension and RCEP on Vietnam-China Trade Balance
title_full_unstemmed Impacts of the US-China Trade Tension and RCEP on Vietnam-China Trade Balance
title_sort impacts of the us-china trade tension and rcep on vietnam-china trade balance
publishDate 2024
url https://scholar.dlu.edu.vn/handle/123456789/3475
https://vietnamjournal.ru/2618-9453/article/view/626487/pdf_1
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