Early Warning Systems of Currency Crises: An Empirical Investigation in Vietnam
Based on the study of Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999), this paper studies and applies early warning systems of currency crises to the case of Vietnam from 1996 to 2014. Its results show that the currency crisis is signaled six times during the observed period. Several principal indicators of the curren...
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| Những tác giả chính: | , , |
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| Định dạng: | Bài viết |
| Ngôn ngữ: | English |
| Được phát hành: |
University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City
2023
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| Truy cập trực tuyến: | http://jabes.ueh.edu.vn/Home/SearchArticle?article_Id=ec20e606-cbb1-46f6-aa10-656127a09dfe http://scholar.dlu.edu.vn/thuvienso/handle/DLU123456789/115510 |
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| Thư viện lưu trữ: | Thư viện Trường Đại học Đà Lạt |
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| Tóm tắt: | Based on the study of Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999), this paper studies and applies early warning systems of currency crises to the case of Vietnam from 1996 to 2014. Its results show that the currency crisis is signaled six times during the observed period. Several principal indicators of the currency crisis in Vietnam include increased import, decreased export, excess real M1 balances, low international reserves and deposit growth, high interest rate and credit growth, high domestic-foreign rate differential, and decreased real output. Hence, the Government and the State Bank of Vietnam should grant appropriate policies not only to control the money supply and interest rate, but also to stimulate the ability of capital mobilization of Vietnam’s banking system and to facilitate export activities in the coming years. |
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