Early Warning Systems of Currency Crises: An Empirical Investigation in Vietnam
Based on the study of Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999), this paper studies and applies early warning systems of currency crises to the case of Vietnam from 1996 to 2014. Its results show that the currency crisis is signaled six times during the observed period. Several principal indicators of the curren...
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University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City
2023
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oai:scholar.dlu.edu.vn:DLU123456789-1155102023-03-08T03:56:37Z Early Warning Systems of Currency Crises: An Empirical Investigation in Vietnam Vo, Thi Thuy Anh Tran, Nguyen Tram Anh Ha, Xuan Thuy Based on the study of Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999), this paper studies and applies early warning systems of currency crises to the case of Vietnam from 1996 to 2014. Its results show that the currency crisis is signaled six times during the observed period. Several principal indicators of the currency crisis in Vietnam include increased import, decreased export, excess real M1 balances, low international reserves and deposit growth, high interest rate and credit growth, high domestic-foreign rate differential, and decreased real output. Hence, the Government and the State Bank of Vietnam should grant appropriate policies not only to control the money supply and interest rate, but also to stimulate the ability of capital mobilization of Vietnam’s banking system and to facilitate export activities in the coming years. 2023-03-08T03:56:37Z 2023-03-08T03:56:37Z 2016 Article 2615-9112 http://jabes.ueh.edu.vn/Home/SearchArticle?article_Id=ec20e606-cbb1-46f6-aa10-656127a09dfe http://scholar.dlu.edu.vn/thuvienso/handle/DLU123456789/115510 10.24311/jabes/2016.23.4.03 en Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, Volume 23, Issue 04; p. 97-116 application/pdf University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City |
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Thư viện Trường Đại học Đà Lạt |
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Thư viện số |
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English |
| description |
Based on the study of Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999), this paper studies and applies early warning systems of currency crises to the case of Vietnam from 1996 to 2014. Its results show that the currency crisis is signaled six times during the observed period. Several principal indicators of the currency crisis in Vietnam include increased import, decreased export, excess real M1 balances, low international reserves and deposit growth, high interest rate and credit growth, high domestic-foreign rate differential, and decreased real output. Hence, the Government and the State Bank of Vietnam should grant appropriate policies not only to control the money supply and interest rate, but also to stimulate the ability of capital mobilization of Vietnam’s banking system and to facilitate export activities in the coming years. |
| format |
Article |
| author |
Vo, Thi Thuy Anh Tran, Nguyen Tram Anh Ha, Xuan Thuy |
| spellingShingle |
Vo, Thi Thuy Anh Tran, Nguyen Tram Anh Ha, Xuan Thuy Early Warning Systems of Currency Crises: An Empirical Investigation in Vietnam |
| author_facet |
Vo, Thi Thuy Anh Tran, Nguyen Tram Anh Ha, Xuan Thuy |
| author_sort |
Vo, Thi Thuy Anh |
| title |
Early Warning Systems of Currency Crises: An Empirical Investigation in Vietnam |
| title_short |
Early Warning Systems of Currency Crises: An Empirical Investigation in Vietnam |
| title_full |
Early Warning Systems of Currency Crises: An Empirical Investigation in Vietnam |
| title_fullStr |
Early Warning Systems of Currency Crises: An Empirical Investigation in Vietnam |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Early Warning Systems of Currency Crises: An Empirical Investigation in Vietnam |
| title_sort |
early warning systems of currency crises: an empirical investigation in vietnam |
| publisher |
University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City |
| publishDate |
2023 |
| url |
http://jabes.ueh.edu.vn/Home/SearchArticle?article_Id=ec20e606-cbb1-46f6-aa10-656127a09dfe http://scholar.dlu.edu.vn/thuvienso/handle/DLU123456789/115510 |
| _version_ |
1765278526203756544 |