An Application of KMV Model to Forecast the Credit Risk of Corporate Customers andBank’s Expected Losses

The research aims to apply KMV-Merton model to calculate and forecast default probability (DP) among corporate customers of Vietcombank. Analyzing data from financial statements of 6,398 corporate customers in the years 2008–2012/2013, the research shows that the DP of the whole customer portfolio i...

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Những tác giả chính: Nguyen, Thi Canh, Pham, Chi Khoa
Định dạng: Bài viết
Ngôn ngữ:English
Được phát hành: University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City 2023
Truy cập trực tuyến:http://jabes.ueh.edu.vn/Home/SearchArticle?article_Id=51cf3122-ccb0-42e2-ac84-ef17e78d1759
http://scholar.dlu.edu.vn/thuvienso/handle/DLU123456789/115549
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spelling oai:scholar.dlu.edu.vn:DLU123456789-1155492023-03-08T03:57:02Z An Application of KMV Model to Forecast the Credit Risk of Corporate Customers andBank’s Expected Losses Nguyen, Thi Canh Pham, Chi Khoa The research aims to apply KMV-Merton model to calculate and forecast default probability (DP) among corporate customers of Vietcombank. Analyzing data from financial statements of 6,398 corporate customers in the years 2008–2012/2013, the research shows that the DP of the whole customer portfolio is 2.6%, equaling a loss of VND6,319 billion, or 3.8% of outstanding loans to the portfolio. The results also show that small-sized companies have smaller DP as compared to larger ones. Regarding industries, the lowest DP is found in road and waterway transport business, and the highest is in electricity (including production, transmission and distribution), production of other kinds of power, and seafood processing business. Industries with high DP and outstanding loans may cause the greatest damage to banks. The research concludes that large-sized companies and seafood processing enterprises cause the greatest losses to banks. 2023-03-08T03:57:01Z 2023-03-08T03:57:01Z 2015 Article 2615-9112 http://jabes.ueh.edu.vn/Home/SearchArticle?article_Id=51cf3122-ccb0-42e2-ac84-ef17e78d1759 http://scholar.dlu.edu.vn/thuvienso/handle/DLU123456789/115549 10.24311/jabes/2015.22.1.07 en Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, Volume 22, Issue 1; p. 62-81 application/pdf University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City
institution Thư viện Trường Đại học Đà Lạt
collection Thư viện số
language English
description The research aims to apply KMV-Merton model to calculate and forecast default probability (DP) among corporate customers of Vietcombank. Analyzing data from financial statements of 6,398 corporate customers in the years 2008–2012/2013, the research shows that the DP of the whole customer portfolio is 2.6%, equaling a loss of VND6,319 billion, or 3.8% of outstanding loans to the portfolio. The results also show that small-sized companies have smaller DP as compared to larger ones. Regarding industries, the lowest DP is found in road and waterway transport business, and the highest is in electricity (including production, transmission and distribution), production of other kinds of power, and seafood processing business. Industries with high DP and outstanding loans may cause the greatest damage to banks. The research concludes that large-sized companies and seafood processing enterprises cause the greatest losses to banks.
format Article
author Nguyen, Thi Canh
Pham, Chi Khoa
spellingShingle Nguyen, Thi Canh
Pham, Chi Khoa
An Application of KMV Model to Forecast the Credit Risk of Corporate Customers andBank’s Expected Losses
author_facet Nguyen, Thi Canh
Pham, Chi Khoa
author_sort Nguyen, Thi Canh
title An Application of KMV Model to Forecast the Credit Risk of Corporate Customers andBank’s Expected Losses
title_short An Application of KMV Model to Forecast the Credit Risk of Corporate Customers andBank’s Expected Losses
title_full An Application of KMV Model to Forecast the Credit Risk of Corporate Customers andBank’s Expected Losses
title_fullStr An Application of KMV Model to Forecast the Credit Risk of Corporate Customers andBank’s Expected Losses
title_full_unstemmed An Application of KMV Model to Forecast the Credit Risk of Corporate Customers andBank’s Expected Losses
title_sort application of kmv model to forecast the credit risk of corporate customers andbank’s expected losses
publisher University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City
publishDate 2023
url http://jabes.ueh.edu.vn/Home/SearchArticle?article_Id=51cf3122-ccb0-42e2-ac84-ef17e78d1759
http://scholar.dlu.edu.vn/thuvienso/handle/DLU123456789/115549
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